Toronto Maple Leafs: A look to the Future

This is the final installment of my 6 part blog entries discussing my favorite NHL team.  I wanted to understand how the Leafs became the team that they are now.  This article looks to the future and some of the decisions President and General Manager David Nonis has to make.  The Leafs are now 11-7-1 after the first 19 games.  They are currently tied for 5th in their conference with the Washington Capitals and would be in the play-offs.  They still have 63 games to play and Mar 5, 2014 deadline date is still far away. They will likely improve once Kadri comes off his 3 game suspension and Bozak returns from injury.

The hope for the future:

What has changed dramatically since Brian Burke first took the job and continuing with David Nonis is the increased skill and depth of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  The Leafs in the past carried several bad contracts with players who suffered from the 'Blue & White' disease.  The decks have been cleared and the Leafs only carry one dog of a contract with John-Michael Liles who is getting paid $3.875M until 2015-16 to play defense for the Marlies.  Two more buyouts (Darcy Tucker and Colby Armstrong) are coming off the books this year which will free up $2M in cap space.  The $500K of retained salary from the Bernier for Matt Frattin and Ben Scrivens will also come off the books.  For the first time in more than the decade the Leafs look like an annual play-off team and the majority of players are young or in their prime.  The oldest Maple Leaf is Colton Orr at 31 years of age.  

The Leafs also would be in the play-offs and now have two goalies that are capable of stealing games and are 3rd overall in save percentage 93.6%.  They have a top 6 offense that has several players on pace for more than 25 goals and the power play is currently 6th overall and is effective 21.7% of the time. The Leafs are first overall in shot percentage at 10.8% and play a fast and assertive game and have shown the ability to wear-down opposing teams.  A key thing needed for the playoffs.  They have a defense that is capable of making the first pass out of the zone and contributing on the power play.  They also have a penalty kill that is ranked 11th overall and is effective at 84.1% of the time.  In the prior season they were second in penalty killing and were ranked high as 3rd until they lost Bozak and Bolland to injury.  So, the Leafs appear to be on firm ground with goaltending, offense and special teams.

What they need to become truly dominant: 

The holes remain on defense, face-offs and the clutch will to win.  Lets start with face-offs and defense.  The Leafs are missing is a bonafide #1 center like a Toews, Getzlaf, Crosby, H Sedin, P. Bergeron, etc that can win big face-offs and play both ends of the rink.  The Leafs are currently ranked 25th with a 45.7% face-off percentage and this trending downwards as their best face-off man Bozak is injured.  The majority of teams who also have such a center have drafted them and developed them; which does not bode well with the Leafs who are likely to be able to draft in the top 5 anytime soon.  If the Leafs were to improve there face-off percentage to a middling  50%, it would increased their puck possession and save them from 2 to 4 shots on their goal and give 2 to 4 more shots at the other end. Thus improve their odds in winning games, especially tight games.

The other is 5 on 5 defense and playing clutch situations.  The Leafs lack a shut-down defensemen that is capable of stopping the star players in the league.  A player such as Shea Webber, Zdeno Chara, Nicolas Kronwall, Drew Doughty, etc.  Just like a premier center; a stud NHL defensemen are typically drafted and take time to develop.  It is rare that they are available as UFAs and by trade it would be expensive.  As for clutch we saw Boston Bruins comeback from a 2 goal deficit to win against the Leafs in game #7 in the first round of last year's play-offs.  I was amazed at how well Boston played and it seemed that the Leafs were flat footed.  Lupul has shown the ability to be a game breaker with some timely goals and so has Bolland when he played for Chicago Blackhawks.  We need to have more players step-up there game at both ends of the rink in those one goal games and overtimes.  Saying all this, the Leafs roster can go backwards if not well manged with all the players contracts who are ending this season.  Also, Nonis has only 7 games of Leaf playoff hockey to evaluate players the majority of players. 

A Busy David Nonis:

The Toronto Maple Leafs only have 12 players signed for next season and have committed payroll of $44M per Capgeek.  It is estimated that the salary cap will rise to approx $70M leaving the Leafs to sign 11 players for $26M.  Nonis has already demonstrated shrewd negotiating resigning Kadri for a 2 year $2.9M a season contract extension well below $5M deals some other young forwards have signed.  Similarly, Franson who wanted a raise to $4M a season multi-year deal was signed for $2M one year deal.  What is particularly concerning is 5 of 8 defensemen are in need of signing.  The top 6 for the Leafs are signed, but the bottom 6 are mostly headed to unrestricted free agency.  

Expiring Maple Leaf Contracts:

Forwards:

C Dave Bolland (UFA), Nikolai Kulemin (UFA), Jay McClement (UFA), Mason Raymond (UFA), Carter Ashton (RFA), Troy Brodie (UFA), and Jerred Smithson (UFA)

Defense:

Dion Phaneuf (UFA), Cody Franson (RFA), Mark Fraser (UFA), Paul Ranger (UFA), Jake Gardiner (RFA)

Goalie:

James Reimer (RFA)

Top Decisions for Nonis and Management Team:

1) Sign or Trade Dion Phaneuf and his expiring $6.5M contract.  Is he worth signing at $7+ million for several more years?  Can Franson, Gardiner or Rielly grow as players and takes his 23+ minutes a game?

2) After Phaneuf there are 4 more defensemen to sign and Franson is fighting for a significant raise.   Has Paul Ranger proved himself an NHL level player after his 3 year absence for personal reasons?  He continues to improve, as does Gardiner and Rielly. 

3) A bonafide #1 Centre, the Leafs have not had a true #1 center since Mats Sundin.  Bozak and Bolland are both solid second line centers when healthy.  Kadri continues to learn, but his weakness remains both face-offs and defense.  Do the Leafs go after Joe Thornton (34) who is the best UFA center available this coming summer?  Other notable Centers who will be UFA's Patrick Marleau (34) and Paul Stastny (28).  Although I doubt San Jose will let either player go to free agency.  (Sportsnet has a good article on 2014 UFAs.)

4) Determine who is Toronto's future starting goaltender Bernier or Reimer?  Keep both for another season or trade a goalie for another need such as a shutdown defensemen or a high draft pick.  Reimer will want a raise on his $1.8M salary and something at least comparable to Berner's $2.9M.  You can see that the $26M could used up quickly.

 5) Jay McClement and the bottom 6.  Jay McClement the Leafs 3rd/4th Line center is a penalty kill and defensive specialist.  One of the best signings of Brian Burke, the leafs had the second best penalty kill in the league in 2012-2013 at 87.9%.  In the season prior to signing of Jay McClement they had 3rd worst penalty kill of 77.3%.  McClement will want a raise on his $1.5M and Kulemin continues to play solid defensive minutes but may want to test free agency, and  lastly Mason Raymond is making Vancouver regret not resigning him. Raymond has 11 points in 17 games playing mostly third lines minutes.  This leaves the bottom 3 including Colton Orr and Marlies/NHL journeymen.  Which players are best to keep on the cheap and can step into replacing injured players and suspensions?

Last Words:

I don't envy David Nonis and management who are going to have to make these decisions and they could very easily keep the same roster, but be spending at the cap.  Having some cap space also gives flexibility to make trades and emergency signings for long-term injuries.  These decisions will play out during the year and I imagine during the Olympic break we'll start seeing movement on both player signings and trades.  What could be most helpful of all is now Toronto is a winning team and David Clarkson actually took less money to become a Leaf than to play elsewhere.  So, hopefully more players will be willing to get paid for a little less to have the opportunity to play on an Original 6 team in a hockey mad city.

I think I'm now past the hope stage and coming to expect success from my Leafs.  With this roster and goaltending we should be able to finish around 4/5 in our conference and make it past the first round of the playoffs.  So, I'll continue to watch and maybe I'll go out in public wearing my Blue & White jersey.  I have not worn that in years.  The future looks good.  Brian Burke looks like he built a winning foundation.

Comments? Thoughts?  An armchair GM suggestion?  Please write them below.