More Puck Head Thoughts on the Toronto Maple Leafs - Part II

Continuing my blog yesterday about all the puck head thoughts traveling the interwebs.  I read an interesting article about David Clarkson's contract by David Mirtle of the Globe and Mail, he makes the argument that it is buy-out proof.  T

So here are the Last Two Major Topics:

1) Fire the Coach.  Well as the expression goes, "you can fire the coach, but you can't fire the whole team."  Carlyle has had success with Leafs as the played well in the prior season and he has a cup ring with Anaheim along with several winning seasons.  I don't think he has the horses to have the success with the Leafs as the game he and all coaches want to play depends on having strength at center. Bozak 26 games missed in November and December did not help in this regard nor did Bolland missing 60 games.  The season is near over and I wouldn't fire him until at least after the exit interviews and hear what the players have to say.  The best teams don't go through coaches every couple of seasons as they have the talent that a coach can work with.

A good criticism in Carlyle failure to use a 4th energy/checking line that can play 7 to 9 minutes a night. Plenty of games the leafs had two fighters ready to play with Colton Orr and Frazer McClaren and they lack the talent to play more a few minutes a games.  The league continues to move away from fighting and per HockeyFights.com, fights recently peaked in 2008-2009 season at 0.60 fights per games and has steadily declined to 0.39 having a fight.  Maple Leafs lead the league with 46 fights as compared and perennial play-off contenders Red Wings have the least with 7. It would make more sense to get young Leafs more opportunity to develop in the NHL than let the goons skate.  Besides you need those young players to fill in for the inevitable injuries.  I think Carlyle has shown poor judgment in this regard.

Carlyle's recent criticism of goalie James Reimer in the media or any young player for the matter, probably does not help the situation. Hurting the player's confidence and adding fuel to the Toronto media is senseless.  Further, publicly criticizing a player may hinder his trade value and it will not appeal to pending free agents. Although, the best way to attract good players is to be a winning team.

Are there better coaches currently out there?  The most prominent NHL coaches that are currently not working are Peter Laviolette, Ron Wilson, Guy Boucher or Brent Sutter.  Laviolette is the only one of these Coaches with a Stanley Cup win (2004-2005 Carolina Hurricanes) and Ron Wilson had his chance in Toronto.  So pickings are slim, unless they want to gamble on hiring an assistant coach or AHL coach.  Firing Carlyle without a decent replacement would probably not help the Leafs current state of mediocrity. I think the Leafs should give him another season and Nonis shoulld put him on a leash for playing goons.  It could be worse... have you seen Tortorella this season.

5) Fire Nonis.  Well he just got the job in full in January 2013, but he's been involved in the decision making process since Brian Burke hired him in December of 2008, he has only made one major mistake since taking charge.  After this season I consider signing David Clarkson for $5.25 for seven seasons a mistake.  If he signed him for $4M I think that would have been reasonable.  The Phaneuf and Kessel extension for $7M and $8M respectively seems too much, but with the cap increasing and the minutes they log it is in that zone of reasonableness of other high caliber players.  I bet the free agent market for Vanek, Moulson, Stastny and Miller will all be for contracts that are $6M plus, as players agents will want to cash in on the expected $7 million increase to the new estimated $71 million salary cap. Kessel is in the top 5 of right wingers in the NHL and is on pace for 40 goals. Phaneuf's $7M would look a lot smarter if he had a more talented defensive partner than Gunnarson and better centers to be the third man back.

Also, on the other side Nonis signed for Bozak for $4.2 million a year for 5 years, which is probably a $1M less than he would earn on the free agent market.  Bernier for $2.9 million a year for 2 years, which is good deal. He also signed Kadri for $2.9 million a year for two years; resisting the the long-term big deal for a player still developing.  All three of these deals are smart.  Further giving Mason Raymond and Paul Ranger $1 million, 1 year deals were smart gambles.  Raymond earned his $1 million at the NHL level.

Nonis not resigning LW Clark MacArthur has been criticized and he has had a successful season with the Ottawa Senators.  Leafs did not have the cap room from the Clarkson signing and Bolland trade.  He'd also be third on the depth chart (after Lupul and van Riemsdyk) on the left hand side and would not have had a decent center to play with.  This puck head argument is weak and I don't consider it a mistake.

Further he has proven to be shrewd in trades and he did not sell the farm or any 1st round picks at the most recent trade deadline.  His trade for Bernier proved smart from the LA Kings and the trade for Bolland was a good idea.  Bolland's injury was a freak occurrence and he was wearing the appropriate kevlar socks.  The trade of John Michael-Liles for Tim Gleason was a good deal as the Leafs got a roster player for a player that was playing for the Marlies.  When the Leafs were in dire need of a center he got Peter Holland from the Anaheim ducks, who is serviceable center that can play 4th line player and could grow into 3rd line player. He is only 23 years old.

The real test for Nonis is what he does this off-season.  My suggestion of trying to work with Edmonton or another team that has a high pick to land a top center or defenceman via the draft is sound.  The question is Craig McTavish, Garth Snow or Brian Burke willing to trade.  Further, what players can Nonis land via UFA.  Capgeek has a neat tool to give you a list of UFAs.  If you read my yesterday article, their really isn't much in terms of top talent at center or defense, which the Leafs are weakest at.  There are some decent wingers including Tomas Vanek, Matt Moulson, Marian Gaborik, Ales Hemsky, Milan Michalek and Michael Cammalleri.  However, the wing is probably the Leafs greatest strength with Kessel, van Riemsdyk, and Lupul.  A gamble out of Burke's playbook is sign a UFA winger and then try to trade a Lupul or Kadri as part of a package to get a decent center or top 4 defenceman or top draft picks/prospects.

The other part is can Nonis or re-sign RFA's Franson, Gardiner, and D'Amigo for reasonable dollars or turn them into other assets.  With UFA's Bolland, Kulemin, and McClement I would keep Bolland if he's willing to sign a one year deal for $3.5M as his trial year with the Leafs was a complete bust because of injury. A long term deal would be folly as Bolland may never to skate as well again and bad contracts tie up needed cap space.  Kulemin is a decent depth winger who did not have the best season and was paid $2.8M for this season.  Another deal like that would be reasonable, but he can play the KHL card and I imagine several teams will be looking at a 27 year old seasoned winger. He may want to move on to a better team after 7 seasons toiling  and is the current longest serving Leaf. Lastly, McClement is a penalty kill/defensive specialist and in 2012/2013 he led the leagues second best penalty kill.  This season McClement and the Leafs penalty kill started the season strong, but McClement lost his effectiveness when his minutes got doubled because of injuries at center.  Last season two seasons he earned $1.5 and he is a bargain for what he was able to earn and I imagine that a lot of teams would be looking to give a raise and at 31 years old it may be his last contract.  He probably wants to line his pockets while he can.

One other player that was part of the Leafs prior regular season success was grinder Leo Komorov and he's a proven pest, checker, and energy line player.  He would be a welcome addition to the Leafs 3rd/4th line and be an asset on the penalty kill.  The sticking point this season was money as the Leafs were up against the cap and the KHL paid him well. He earned $1.2M in salary during the 2012-2013 season.  If Nonis can get him signed for $2M he would make the Leafs harder to play against and fit in Carlyle's style of game.

Last major free agent, what will Nonis do with James Reimer? He's a restricted free agent and coach Carlyle has not shown the love for him.  Also, Bernier won the starting job for this season and Reimar played strongly as the Leaf starter in 2012-2013 shortened season.  I'd consider it a success if the Leafs can re-sign him $2.25M as a backup (a raise over the $1.8M a season this year) or can turn him into a 1st round pick and a top prospect.  Based on recent goalie transactions the going rate is a mid late 1st round pick and a good prospect or 2nd to 4th round pick or younger goalie prospect.   Hopefully, the Leafs can get something out of him and even swindle another team like after Boston got from the Leafs Tuuka Rask and the Leafs got Andrew Raycroft who only played 1 and 1/4 horrible seasons with the Leafs.

Final Thoughts for Nonis and Leafs Management Team:

As the expression goes, it easy spending other people's money.  But, saying that the Leafs can spend to the cap and still be a mediocre team.  My best suggestion is keeping $5M in room to be flexible with for the future and be able to take advantage of opportunities.  In the end, Nonis is accountable for the players and the coaching staff and a year and a half is insufficient to evaluate him.  He's made several good decisions and one major error; he's certainly not Mad Mike Milbury.  If he just re-signs this existing team than the Leafs are again a mediocre team; and senior management should find someone better.  If the players he's drafted and overseen the development are produces a star and some top players than we'll know he's a success.  A couple of shrewd trades like the one he did for Bernier or the one he and Burkie did to get Cody Franson and Joffrey Lupul would be even better.  I think we have to wait to see how our 2014-2015 Leaf's perform.

Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions? Did you know that the Leafs drafted Connor Brown who was the reguler season scoring champion in the OHL with 45 Goals and 83 assists for 128 points in 68 games for the Erie Otters.  Past players holding that distinction include Corey Perry, John Tavares, and Tyler Sequin/Tyler Hall (they were tied.)