Lose, Baby Lose!
The good news is that if the Leafs keep losing they can likely pick higher in this Summer's draft and hopefully find that two-way center or shut-down defencemen they need. Thankfully, they did not trade away their first round pick like so many times before. The Leafs are currently 11th place in the race for the bottom. First through 5th are respectively held by Buffalo, Edmonton, Florida, NY Islanders and Calgary. The Leafs could lose all remaining 6 games, but they can't catch these teams. With a few more losses the Leafs could drop to 8th or 9th draft position.
That draft position could be fruitful as once can see going back a few years in the NHL:
GP - G - A - Pts
2006 - 9th Overall - Min - C James Sheppard - 317 - 16 - 57- 73
8th Overall - Pho - C Peter Mueller - 297 - 63- 97 - 160
2007 - 9th Overall - SJ - C Logan Couture - 211 - 109 - 105 - 214
8th Overall - Bos - C Zach Hamill - 20 - 0 - 4 - 4
2008 - 9th Overall - NYI - C Josh Bailey - 398 - 62 - 114 - 176
8th Overall - Pho - LW Mikkel Boedker - 331 - 53 - 89 - 142
2009 - 9th Overall - Ott - D Jared Cowen - 158 - 12 - 21 - 33
8th Overall - Dal - C Scott Glennie - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
2010 - 9th Overall - Min - LW Mikael Granlund - 90 - 10 - 39 - 49
8th Overall - Wpg - C Alexander Burmistov - 194 - 23 - 35 - 58
2011 - 9th Overall - Bos - D Dougie Hamilton - 99 - 12 - 29 - 41
8th Overall - Phi - C Sean Couturier - 197 - 27 - 51 - 78
2012 - 9th Overall - Wpg - D Jacob Trouba - 59 - 9 - 18 - 27
8th Overall - Pit - D Derrick Pouliot - No NHL Games Played
So, based on 7 seasons from 2006 to 2012, 11 of 14 players are NHL regulars. Mueller now plays in the Swiss league, but concussion and injuries curtailed his career. Derrick Pouliot is 20 years old and the team leading defencemen on the Portland Winterhawks who are the second best team in the WHL. I'm guessing with his 17G, 53A for 70 points in 58 games and we will see him in the NHL. So, that is really 12 out of 14, or 86% chance of landing an NHL player. The majority of the above players have developed into second or third liners or 4th/5th defencemen on their respective teams. All are still young and improving.
The Next Great Blue & White Hope:
Looking above a couple of these players drafted around 8th or 9th are true difference makers, specifically Logan Couture (who just missed out on being on Canada's Olympic Team) and Mikael Granlund who shined for Finland and was selected as one of the Tournament All-Stars. So, who will the sharks of the Toronto media be circling? The draft is still awhile way on June 27th in Philadelphia.
I checked NHL.com and TSN.ca, and the draft ranking have not been updated since January. Bob McKenzie is wrong the majority of the time with his trade speculation, but his final draft ranking are reasonably accurate. The most recent Draft Ranking I could find is from Craig Button TSN's Director of Scouting, see it here. Based on Craig's list the Leafs could select C Jared McCann, LW Adrian Kempe, D Haydn Fleury, RW David Pasternak, or D Anthony DeAngelo. Play-offs are currently occurring in the CHL and will be a chance for some of these players to further distinguish themselves.
Wikipedia has an article that details all the transactions affecting the draft if you want to know who has moved their respective draft picks.
The Hail Mary:
Moving up in the draft does occur occasionally and this could be a season that this could occur. The Leafs could package a roster player and their first round pick for a top 3 pick. Players such as Gardiner, Franson, Reimer or Kadri who are younger and proven enough may be enough to entice another team that wants to improve quicker. I'm specifically thinking of Edmonton Oilers who need help on defence and Franson would be #1 on their depth chart based on looking at their team. Florida similarly may want help on defence and Kulikov their best defenceman's contract is up and he has turn down offers to sign with Panthers this season. He is rumored to want to cash in by returning to play in Russia and play in the KHL. Franson or Gardiner would help replace Kulikov's loss on the power play. I doubt Buffalo would move their pick as they are on record saying they want to bottom out and restock the organization. NYI and Calgary who would pick 4th and 5th under Garth Snow and Brian Burke's supervision are both known to trade... but would moving up to 4th or 5th be worth a roster player? A top prospect and the Leafs first round pick could do it. If Nonis were to able to work some magic than these are 3 players to aim for. (Stats are for the recently completed CHL season.)
1) Sam Reinhart - Kootenay Ice Dogs - 6'1, 185 LBs - GP 60 G 36 A 69 PTS 105
A player with high a hockey IQ that knows where to be at both ends of the rink. Capable of scoring and a team leader, he is projected to be a top center and could be the 1st or 2nd line center the Leafs need.
2) Aaron Ekblad - Barrie Colts - Defence - 6'4, 216 LBS - GP 58 G 23 A 30 PTS 53
A big body defencemen who can play 25 minutes a game at both ends of the ice. Projected to be a star defenceman and could be that #1 or #2 defenceman given seasoning that the Leafs need.
3) Sam Bennett - Kingston Frontenacs - 6'0, 178 LBS - GP 57 G 36 A 51 PTS 91
Again another center that is versatile and good at both ends of the ice. He plays with an edge and has proven to step up when it counts. Another projected top center and again could be 1st or 2nd line center the Leafs need.
None of the above players are projected to be Superstars like Crosby or Thornton or 2015's Connor McDavid, but if I'm in Nonis shoes I'd certainly gamble on getting one of these 3 players.
Knowing the Leafs:
My last thought is the Leafs will of course go on a 3 game winning streak to close out the season and shoot themselves in the foot and move down in the draft rankings. It is the Maple Laughs way!
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