Bull in the China Shop - Review of William Ashley Warehouse Moving Sale

Yesterday, Mrs. Shopaholic and I attended during the evening the 2014 William Ashley Warehouse Moving Sale and we were not pleased as compared to past sales. When we attended their annual Fall sale last October I previously favourably blogged about it.

William Ashley Sale Flyer - April 2014 (Front)

What made this sale flop for us was that we went in a with a list of items to shop for and we only walked out with a set of place mats.  The shelves were not bare; but certainly thin and the selection was far reduced.  It was the first day of the sale and we did attend at night.... so it could have been a matter of getting to the shelves when they are still stocked.  But, this was the first time we did not spend a couple of hundred dollars and we were prepared too.  In the past we tried to get to a sale early in the morning on a weekend and you had to show your AMEX. This time they did not ask; although how I found about the sale was from AMEX 'Front of the Line' emails.

What was lacking was selection in bathroom accessories, kitchen utensils, infant and children items, bbq season items, knives, party favours, and baking accessories as compared to past.  You could still add china, crystal, cutlery if you were looking for it, they had ample Christmas decorations, place mats and picture frames.  We also experienced a long line to leave the store, but they had ample cash registers open and the line did move quickly.  Also, I strongly suggest parking a few blocks away as you could see parking enforcement out and about.  If you don't mind the walk we always park in the residential area North of Lawrence past the Tim Horton's.

The take away is if you do attend they will give you a $15 gift card if you provide them with your email address at the cash register.  They also had no sales tax which was nice; accept we only spent $12 dollars.

The details are below... I say buyer beware and if you are looking for Kitchen/Bathroom items to just wait for a 'Bay Days' sale or stop at Macy's if you happen to be south of the border.  Here is the relevant details from their flyer.

William Ashley Sale Flyer - April 2014 (Back)

Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions?  Did you have a better experience?  Please tell me below.

How Wrong Was I - My Prediction vs the Final NHL Standings

Back in October I predicted the standings for the 2013-2014 NHL season and I was making a larger point that pundits ('puckheads') blather on as the so called experts.  These 'puckheads' and I'm on of them to a lesser extent make predictions and rarely ever go back and admit they are wrong.  Of course if they get it right they thump there chest (ie Don Cherry) or give some chin swagger (Bob McKenzie.)

I'm going to actually compare my and THN (The Hockey News) result to actual and see how wrong I was:

Eastern Conference:
THN's Prediction:	My Prediction:	Actual Result
1) Pittsburgh Penguins	1) Pittsburgh Penguins	1) Boston Bruins
2) Boston Bruins	2) Boston Bruins	2) Pittsburgh Penguins
3) Ottawa Senators	3) Detroit Red Wings	3) Tampa Bay Lightning
4) Detroit Red Wings	4) Toronto Maples Leafs	4) Montreal Canadians
5) New York Rangers	5) Ottawa Senators	5) New York Rangers
6) Toronto Maple Leafs	6) Montreal Canadians	6) Philadelphia Flyers
7) Montreal Canadians	7) Washington Capitals	7) Columbus Blue Jackets
8) Philadelphia Flyers	8) New York Islanders	8) Detroit Red Wings
9) Washington Capitals	9) Columbus Blue Jackets	9) Washington Capitals
10) New York Islanders	10) New York Rangers	10) New Jersey Devils
11) Columbus Blue Jackets	11) Philadelphia Flyers	11) Ottawa Senators
12) Tampa Bay Lightning	12) Tampa Bay Lightning	12) Toronto Maple Leafs
13) Carolina Hurricanes	13) Carolina Hurricanes	13) Carolina Hurricanes
14) Buffalo Sabres	14) New Jersey Devils	14) NY Islanders
15) New Jersey Devils	15) Florida Panthers	15) Florida Panthers
16) Florida Panthers	16) Buffalo Sabres	16) Buffalo Sabres

From a mathematical perspective:

• Odds of predicting the top 8 in precise order is 1 in 518,918,400
• Odds of predicting the 8 teams that will make the play-offs regardless of order is 1 in 12,870

Well both THN and I were both completely off in predicting the order of the standings.  As for playoff teams I got only 4 of 8 teams right and THN got 6 of 8 right.  Both THN and I thought that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators would make the play-offs.  Sadly, this is the worst season in NHL history for Canadian hockey teams.

Western Conference:
THN's Prediction:	My Prediction:	Actual Result
1) Chicago Blackhawks	1) Chicago Blackhawks	1) Anaheim Ducks
2) Los Angeles Kings	2) San Jose Sharks	2) Colorado Avalanche
3) San Jose Sharks	3) Los Angeles Kings	3) St. Louis Blues
4) St. Louis Blues	4) St. Louis Blues	4) San Jose Sharks
5) Minnesota Wild	5) Anaheim Ducks	5) Chicago Blackhawks
6) Vancouver Canucks	6) Vancouver Canucks	6) Los Angeles Kings
7) Dallas Stars	7) Phoenix Coyotes	7) Minnesota Wild
8) Edmonton Oilers	8) Minnesota Wild	8) Dallas Stars
9) Anaheim Ducks	9) Nashville Predators	9) Phoenix Coyotes
10) Nashville Predators	10) Colorado Avalanche	10) Nashville Predators
11) Winnipeg Jets	11) Winnipeg Jets	11) Winnipeg Jets
12) Colorado Avalanche	12) Edmonton Oilers	12) Vancouver Canucks
13) Phoenix Coyotes	13) Dallas Stars	13)  Calgary Flames
14) Calgary Flames	14) Calgary Flames	14) Edmonton Oilers

 From a mathematical perspective (now you have 14 teams):

• Odds of predicting the top 8 in precise order is 1 in 121,080,960
• Odds of predicting the 8 teams that will make the play-offs regardless of order is 1 in 3,003

Again, THN and I were way off in predicting the order of the standings.  As for playoff teams both THN and I were right for 6 out of 8.  Although, the odds are greatly improved with 2 fewer teams in the Western conference.   

My Point made Simple:

I was wrong and the odds of me or the puckheads getting it right or close to right is remote.  The folly of prediction, but with this I at least went back to see I was accurate.  I scanned the local sports pages and I did not see one of these puckheads check their accuracy.  I did see a lot of articles with puckheads analyzing the final standings and what went right and wrong for teams.  I could sit here and make convenient rationalizations after the fact and talk about player injuries, bad coaching, and players having abnormal seasons.  But, it still makes my prediction wrong. 

One More Prediction to Go - Stanley Cup Champion:

This my and THN's prediction from back in October.  Based on how Boston has played this season, I like my chances.  St. Louis Blues are also playing extremely well, but will have to battle out of the West and will be playing Chicago Blackhawks in the first round.  That could possbly be one of the best series this play-offs considering the talent of both teams and how they match-up.

Stanley Cup Champion:

My prediction:

Boston Bruins - (Runner-up St. Louis Blues)

THN's prediction:

St. Louis Blues - (Runner-up Pittsburgh)

Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions?  Which team do you think is going drink from Lord Stanley's Cup?

One More Loss to Go

Once you are out of the playoffs their is no point winning anymore.  The higher you get in the draft, the greater chance of you selecting someone who is going to help you win in the playoffs a few years from now. With the last two losses the leafs sit in 22nd place or 9th from the bottom.  Previously I analyzed draft picks for teams that finished with the 8th or 9th draft pick in this recent blog.

Now hiring of Brendan Shanahan (3 Time Stanley Cup Champion, Hockey Hall of Famer, Regular Season totals of 656 Goals, 698 Assists, 1354 points, and Olympic Gold Medalist) and most recently VP of Player Safety is in my opinion silly as the President of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  He is certainly a winner on the ice, has life time of experience of playing in the NHL, and experience working/leading at NHL office.  He has no experience job shadowing a general manager or team president, like a lot of his contemporaries such as Cam Neely, Steve Yzerman, Joe Sakic, Joe Niewendyk, and Wayne Gretzkey.   So, if he now supercedes on the management chain current Leaf Senior VP and General Manager David Nonis is ludicrous.  Leafs also have Assistant General Managers/VPs Dave Poulin and Claude Loiselle. Dave Poulin has been the General Manager of the Toronto Marlies since 2009 and long history in hockey management.  Claude Loiselle was hired as the Assistant General Manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 1994 and was General Manager of their farm affiliate Norfolk Admirals for seven years.  In 2010, Brian Burke hired him as the Assistant General Manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  So, you have essentially 3 General Managers who all have more than a decade of experience to now be supervised by Brendan Shanahan.  It makes little sense to me and too many chefs spoil the broth. Shanahan does not have the experience running a business or a business degree or a law degree which is common in these positions.  Putting his smiling face in front of the camera is not going to make any less upset with the Leafs falling in the standings, nor the lack of Stanley Cup since 1967.

One more opinion is not going to make the Toronto Maple Leafs a winner.  It is talent in good combination with coaching.  So, if the Leafs lose their final game on Saturday to Ottawa and Winnipeg Jets win tonight against Calgary than the Leafs would draft most likely 8th.  That would make me happy.  It would make me even happier if they can combine their first pick and a secondary player for a top 3 pick.  Which I have talked about on an another recent blog.




DRAFT ORDER - Based on April 11TH NHL Standings

Rank	Team	% of Winning	Points	Games Remaining	Wins (incl. Overtime)
1	Buffalo Sabres	25.0	51	2	14
2	Edmonton Oilers	18.8	65	1	24
3	Florida Panthers	14.2	66	1	21
4	New York Islandersa	10.7	75	2	25
5	Calgary Flames	8.1	77	2	28
6	Carolina Hurricanes	6.2	79	2	33
7	Vancouver Canucks	4.7	81	2	30
8	Winnipeg Jets	3.6	82	1	28
9	Toronto Maple Leafs	2.7	84	1	29
10	Ottawa Senatorsb	2.1	84	2	29
11	Nashville Predators	1.5	84	2	34
12	Washington Capitals	0.8	87	2	27
13	Phoenix Coyotes	0.5	87	2	30
30	New Jersey Devilsc	1.1	85	2	34

% of Winning - Is the odds of a team winning the draft lottery. 

a - The New York Islanders must give either their 2014 or 2015 first round pick to the Buffalo Sabers as part of the Thomas Vanek trade.  

b - The Senators' first-round pick was traded to the Anaheim Ducks as part of the Bobby Ryan trade.a - The New York Islanders have the option to give either their 2014 or 2015 first-round draft pick to the Buffalo Sabres as part of the trade that sent Thomas Vanek to New York. The Islanders have to notify the Buffalo Sabers prior to the 2014 NHL Draft.

c- The New Jersey Devils regardless of standings will receive the 30th overall pick as cap circumvention penalty for signing Ilya Kovalchuk.