This article is part of my larger overall analysis of the Leafs. For articles earlier this season please see my past blogs. This is part 1 of 2 - the next article is my suggestion of who the Leafs should sell.
Where are the Leafs now:
The leafs winning record is .517% and that is they have won 2 more games than they have lost in regulation and overtime. Based on there points record they will finish with 93 and would face Tampa Bay on the road in the first round. The Leafs have played Tampa Bay once this season in January and won 3-2 at home. However this is a game that they came close to losing as Bernier saved the day after facing 42 shots. Also, Tampa Bay's best player was missing in Steven Stamkos, who likely would have a buried goal in run and gun game like this. A good test is tomorrow when they visit to play Tampa Bay and see if they can wash off the drubbing they took against the Panthers. Will the Leafs show the hustle and team play to get through a first round play-off series? With 3rd to 11th place in the Eastern Conference only 10 points separated, the Leafs are only one losing streak away from being outside the play-offs.
My argument for Sellers:
With the trade deadline approaching on March 5, 2014 and the Leafs really just playing slightly better than .500 hockey and in all likelihood be unable to beat Pittsburgh or Boston, in the second round than why keep the current team in place. The two biggest holes remain are a top two way center that can win 50%+ of the face-offs and a true number one defenceman. Or at least an elite shut-down defenceman. I think if you can't contend in the second round of the play-offs than why bother to mortgage the future for a couple of depth players for the here and now. The Leafs continue to struggle with consistency and defensive play.
I've heard many 'puckheads' say "get into the play-offs and see what happens." Well the Leafs came close to an upset of Boston last year, but there was no way they could have won against Chicago in the West. More so I doubt they could have beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round. I think the Leafs getting play-off experience under the belt is important, but they have not demonstrated the ability to play consistent hockey. They normally win by combination of killer first line and hot goalie. The team defense is just not there and it is seen night after night in the shot differential.
So, why mortgage the future by trading away high draft picks and prospects? Only 1 team wins the Stanley Cup and majority of recent Stanley Cup winners the team was already in place and they got a depth forward to shore up the bottom two lines. The Leafs are missing two pieces of the core to be a true contender and nobody is going to trade you an elite center or defenceman without the Leafs parting with some key parts and prospects. Trying to buy rental players with high draft picks and decent prospects is just going to put the Leafs in the same muddling teams like they had under the Pat Quinn and Cliff Fletcher years ago.
What is there to Buy:
To further my argument about being a seller is to look at what top players are becoming a UFAs this summer and what the Leafs need. Wingers such as Jagr, Vanek, Moulson, Vrbata, and Hemsky could be available, but the Leafs weakness is not on the wing with Kessel, Lupul, Van Riemsdyk, Kadri, and Clarkson. Also, they would need at about $5M of prorated cap space which they do not have.
Center is a significant weakness and only a couple of centers on non contending teams could be available such as D Legwand, S. Ott, O. Jokinen and B Boyes. Legwand is only remaining center worth considering and would make sense as a second/third line center. He also is a career 46% at face-offs, which is only slightly better than Bolland and Kadri. This would not be the player that gives them that extra push. Steve Ott is a great pest and yes could help the Leafs or most teams. But, he also racks up the PIMs and with 34 play-off games under his belt he only has 5 points. Not a proven track record and an untimely penalty could put you behind.
Defenceman are even more slim pickings with Andrew MacDonald (27 - NYI), Marek Zidlicky (37 -NJD), Tom Gilbert (31 - Florida), Kimmo Timonen (38 - Philadelphia) and Andrej Meszaros (28 - Philadelphia). Of these options A. MacDonald is the leader and a late bloomer, who currently leads the Islanders in ice-time and blocked shots. At 27 he's also in his prime and earning $550K a year and could likely be resigned at the $5M mark. Trading for MacDonald would make sense for lot of teams and his price could be rather high. Also, he only has 4 games of NHL play-off experience in last years first round exit of the Islanders. A gamble to say the least. Gilbert plays on top pairing with Bryan Campbell in Florida and with give you depth on a third pairing. But, he has a total of 5 NHL games of experience. The other defencemen are well past their prime or in the case Meszaros play decimated by recent injuries.
Lastly, goaltending and a hot goaltender can win you the Stanley cup or get you pretty close. 3 names stand out which are Ryan Miller, Martin Brodeur and Tim Thomas. All 3 have no movement clauses and I doubt would want to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs. I can see Brodeur moving to be backup on a true contender, but I think he'll just stay put and retire a New Jersey Devil. He does have 3 Stanley Cup wins and two Olympic Gold medals. Miller I can see moving to a contender, but of the top teams most have solid goaltending. Would Pittsburgh take Miller to replace Marc-Andre Fleury who's quality of play dived in the play-offs the last three seasons? How about Minnesota who is getting great goaltending from Josh Harding, but because of his MS may not be able to handle a long run in the play-offs? No matter for the Leafs, I think Bernier has to only worry about Reimer.
Yes, there are few wingers that are worth looking at and couple of defencemen. But, there is no game breaker that will get the Leafs deep into the play-offs. Let the kids mature another season and keep giving them opportunities to develop into the players you need.
The Market:
Most teams are in the process of determining if they are buyers or sellers, what makes this season interesting is the number of middling teams in the Eastern Conference. The difference between 3rd place and 13th is 10 points and that means 11 teams are fighting for 6 positions and they are all a few games apart. The Western Conference is far more clear cut. 5 teams are solidly in the play-offs right now, leaving 6 teams separated by 6 points for 3 play-off spots. If you are one of these latter teams you have to consider what is your chances going up against Chicago, St. Louis, Anaheim or San Jose.
With both conferences having several bubble teams, I think we will see some minor trades coming once we are closer to the March 5th deadline. A few more games played may separate out a little more the teams on the bubble. But, I think GMs have learned in the past that selling the farm doesn't typically get you more than one extra round in the play-offs. Although, I can see some GMs under pressure for their jobs and getting into the play-offs may be there priority. I think Mike Gillis (Vancouver Canucks) is in this situation as his core forwards are getting past their prime and they are having a mediocre season. Also, the last two first round exits against San Jose and Los Angeles did not help. The fans in Edmonton are getting frustrated with the 8 year rebuild and Craig MacTavish is likely going to try find a veteran or two to help his line-up. Multiple 'puckheads' have reported that MacTavish has consistently overvalued his players and because of this he's been unable to trade such players as Hemsky over the last few seasons. I doubt much will change until summer and they again have limited luck finding free agents.
Also, we know that Brian Burke (Calgary Flames) will be up to something. But, I doubt he'll make any trades with Toronto as he'll be looking to draft pics for pending free agents such as W Lee Stempniak and D Kris Russell. Overall, I think there will be modest amount of activity with probably 10 to 12 depth players moving around to contending teams. I also think that NYI will try to move Vanek unless he signs and I think Buffalo is going to move Moulson to get more draft picks as part of their rebuild. I think other players over $4M are likely going nowhere as most contending teams are pretty much up against the salary cap. Per Capgeek of teams currently in the play-offs only Colorado has significant amount of room to take on salary. Ottawa is the only Canadian that is just outside the play-offs that has cap space and on-line rumors persist they want Matt Moulson to play alongside Jason Spezza. Lastly, we'll likely see several AHL players move around as these teams also get ready for the Calder Cup.
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