More Puck Head Thoughts on the Toronto Maple Leafs - Part II

Continuing my blog yesterday about all the puck head thoughts traveling the interwebs.  I read an interesting article about David Clarkson's contract by David Mirtle of the Globe and Mail, he makes the argument that it is buy-out proof.  T

So here are the Last Two Major Topics:

1) Fire the Coach.  Well as the expression goes, "you can fire the coach, but you can't fire the whole team."  Carlyle has had success with Leafs as the played well in the prior season and he has a cup ring with Anaheim along with several winning seasons.  I don't think he has the horses to have the success with the Leafs as the game he and all coaches want to play depends on having strength at center. Bozak 26 games missed in November and December did not help in this regard nor did Bolland missing 60 games.  The season is near over and I wouldn't fire him until at least after the exit interviews and hear what the players have to say.  The best teams don't go through coaches every couple of seasons as they have the talent that a coach can work with.

A good criticism in Carlyle failure to use a 4th energy/checking line that can play 7 to 9 minutes a night. Plenty of games the leafs had two fighters ready to play with Colton Orr and Frazer McClaren and they lack the talent to play more a few minutes a games.  The league continues to move away from fighting and per HockeyFights.com, fights recently peaked in 2008-2009 season at 0.60 fights per games and has steadily declined to 0.39 having a fight.  Maple Leafs lead the league with 46 fights as compared and perennial play-off contenders Red Wings have the least with 7. It would make more sense to get young Leafs more opportunity to develop in the NHL than let the goons skate.  Besides you need those young players to fill in for the inevitable injuries.  I think Carlyle has shown poor judgment in this regard.

Carlyle's recent criticism of goalie James Reimer in the media or any young player for the matter, probably does not help the situation. Hurting the player's confidence and adding fuel to the Toronto media is senseless.  Further, publicly criticizing a player may hinder his trade value and it will not appeal to pending free agents. Although, the best way to attract good players is to be a winning team.

Are there better coaches currently out there?  The most prominent NHL coaches that are currently not working are Peter Laviolette, Ron Wilson, Guy Boucher or Brent Sutter.  Laviolette is the only one of these Coaches with a Stanley Cup win (2004-2005 Carolina Hurricanes) and Ron Wilson had his chance in Toronto.  So pickings are slim, unless they want to gamble on hiring an assistant coach or AHL coach.  Firing Carlyle without a decent replacement would probably not help the Leafs current state of mediocrity. I think the Leafs should give him another season and Nonis shoulld put him on a leash for playing goons.  It could be worse... have you seen Tortorella this season.

5) Fire Nonis.  Well he just got the job in full in January 2013, but he's been involved in the decision making process since Brian Burke hired him in December of 2008, he has only made one major mistake since taking charge.  After this season I consider signing David Clarkson for $5.25 for seven seasons a mistake.  If he signed him for $4M I think that would have been reasonable.  The Phaneuf and Kessel extension for $7M and $8M respectively seems too much, but with the cap increasing and the minutes they log it is in that zone of reasonableness of other high caliber players.  I bet the free agent market for Vanek, Moulson, Stastny and Miller will all be for contracts that are $6M plus, as players agents will want to cash in on the expected $7 million increase to the new estimated $71 million salary cap. Kessel is in the top 5 of right wingers in the NHL and is on pace for 40 goals. Phaneuf's $7M would look a lot smarter if he had a more talented defensive partner than Gunnarson and better centers to be the third man back.

Also, on the other side Nonis signed for Bozak for $4.2 million a year for 5 years, which is probably a $1M less than he would earn on the free agent market.  Bernier for $2.9 million a year for 2 years, which is good deal. He also signed Kadri for $2.9 million a year for two years; resisting the the long-term big deal for a player still developing.  All three of these deals are smart.  Further giving Mason Raymond and Paul Ranger $1 million, 1 year deals were smart gambles.  Raymond earned his $1 million at the NHL level.

Nonis not resigning LW Clark MacArthur has been criticized and he has had a successful season with the Ottawa Senators.  Leafs did not have the cap room from the Clarkson signing and Bolland trade.  He'd also be third on the depth chart (after Lupul and van Riemsdyk) on the left hand side and would not have had a decent center to play with.  This puck head argument is weak and I don't consider it a mistake.

Further he has proven to be shrewd in trades and he did not sell the farm or any 1st round picks at the most recent trade deadline.  His trade for Bernier proved smart from the LA Kings and the trade for Bolland was a good idea.  Bolland's injury was a freak occurrence and he was wearing the appropriate kevlar socks.  The trade of John Michael-Liles for Tim Gleason was a good deal as the Leafs got a roster player for a player that was playing for the Marlies.  When the Leafs were in dire need of a center he got Peter Holland from the Anaheim ducks, who is serviceable center that can play 4th line player and could grow into 3rd line player. He is only 23 years old.

The real test for Nonis is what he does this off-season.  My suggestion of trying to work with Edmonton or another team that has a high pick to land a top center or defenceman via the draft is sound.  The question is Craig McTavish, Garth Snow or Brian Burke willing to trade.  Further, what players can Nonis land via UFA.  Capgeek has a neat tool to give you a list of UFAs.  If you read my yesterday article, their really isn't much in terms of top talent at center or defense, which the Leafs are weakest at.  There are some decent wingers including Tomas Vanek, Matt Moulson, Marian Gaborik, Ales Hemsky, Milan Michalek and Michael Cammalleri.  However, the wing is probably the Leafs greatest strength with Kessel, van Riemsdyk, and Lupul.  A gamble out of Burke's playbook is sign a UFA winger and then try to trade a Lupul or Kadri as part of a package to get a decent center or top 4 defenceman or top draft picks/prospects.

The other part is can Nonis or re-sign RFA's Franson, Gardiner, and D'Amigo for reasonable dollars or turn them into other assets.  With UFA's Bolland, Kulemin, and McClement I would keep Bolland if he's willing to sign a one year deal for $3.5M as his trial year with the Leafs was a complete bust because of injury. A long term deal would be folly as Bolland may never to skate as well again and bad contracts tie up needed cap space.  Kulemin is a decent depth winger who did not have the best season and was paid $2.8M for this season.  Another deal like that would be reasonable, but he can play the KHL card and I imagine several teams will be looking at a 27 year old seasoned winger. He may want to move on to a better team after 7 seasons toiling  and is the current longest serving Leaf. Lastly, McClement is a penalty kill/defensive specialist and in 2012/2013 he led the leagues second best penalty kill.  This season McClement and the Leafs penalty kill started the season strong, but McClement lost his effectiveness when his minutes got doubled because of injuries at center.  Last season two seasons he earned $1.5 and he is a bargain for what he was able to earn and I imagine that a lot of teams would be looking to give a raise and at 31 years old it may be his last contract.  He probably wants to line his pockets while he can.

One other player that was part of the Leafs prior regular season success was grinder Leo Komorov and he's a proven pest, checker, and energy line player.  He would be a welcome addition to the Leafs 3rd/4th line and be an asset on the penalty kill.  The sticking point this season was money as the Leafs were up against the cap and the KHL paid him well. He earned $1.2M in salary during the 2012-2013 season.  If Nonis can get him signed for $2M he would make the Leafs harder to play against and fit in Carlyle's style of game.

Last major free agent, what will Nonis do with James Reimer? He's a restricted free agent and coach Carlyle has not shown the love for him.  Also, Bernier won the starting job for this season and Reimar played strongly as the Leaf starter in 2012-2013 shortened season.  I'd consider it a success if the Leafs can re-sign him $2.25M as a backup (a raise over the $1.8M a season this year) or can turn him into a 1st round pick and a top prospect.  Based on recent goalie transactions the going rate is a mid late 1st round pick and a good prospect or 2nd to 4th round pick or younger goalie prospect.   Hopefully, the Leafs can get something out of him and even swindle another team like after Boston got from the Leafs Tuuka Rask and the Leafs got Andrew Raycroft who only played 1 and 1/4 horrible seasons with the Leafs.

Final Thoughts for Nonis and Leafs Management Team:

As the expression goes, it easy spending other people's money.  But, saying that the Leafs can spend to the cap and still be a mediocre team.  My best suggestion is keeping $5M in room to be flexible with for the future and be able to take advantage of opportunities.  In the end, Nonis is accountable for the players and the coaching staff and a year and a half is insufficient to evaluate him.  He's made several good decisions and one major error; he's certainly not Mad Mike Milbury.  If he just re-signs this existing team than the Leafs are again a mediocre team; and senior management should find someone better.  If the players he's drafted and overseen the development are produces a star and some top players than we'll know he's a success.  A couple of shrewd trades like the one he did for Bernier or the one he and Burkie did to get Cody Franson and Joffrey Lupul would be even better.  I think we have to wait to see how our 2014-2015 Leaf's perform.

Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions? Did you know that the Leafs drafted Connor Brown who was the reguler season scoring champion in the OHL with 45 Goals and 83 assists for 128 points in 68 games for the Erie Otters.  Past players holding that distinction include Corey Perry, John Tavares, and Tyler Sequin/Tyler Hall (they were tied.) 

More Puck Head Thoughts on the Maple Leafs

Hindsight is 20/20 they say.  I'm pulling a Don Cherry and I said the Maple Leafs should have been sellers at the trade deadline.  Furthermore, I suggested some trades and getting draft picks in exchange for the Leafs pending free agents.  My thoughts have not changed much since then.  I did not expect the Leafs to lose 8 games in a row (the Leafs last did this in 1985) and they would be locking up a play-off spot in the 4th through 6th position.  Last nights 3-2 win over the Calgary Flames does not change much as they would have to go undefeated in the remaining 5 games to wrestle a wild card spot away from Detroit or Columbus. Bernier's recent groin pull, Kessel with his deeply bruised foot and Bolland who is skating terribly coming back after his ankle injury is going to make this feat impossible.  Yesterday, I advocated "lose, baby lose!" and that is the best thing the Leafs can do right now. Just get a higher draft pick for next year.

What the Puck Heads are Saying and my Thoughts:

In the last few days I have reading various Leaf articles from TSN, The Star and The Globe and Mail on what they should do.

1) Take the 'C' off Phaneuf.  Well unless he volunteers to take it off, than this would mean you probably have to trade him after that kick in the teeth. The thought is that Phaneuf will play better with not having the pressure of the 'C'.  He has a limited no trade clause and I could not find any specifics regarding this to gauge how hard it would be to trade him.  I doubt the Leafs could get equal value coming back.  Besides who would replace him as Captain? The alternates are Joffrey Lupul and Jay McClement?  It takes a thick skin to be the Captain in Toronto and the media plays rough.

One other thought about Phaneuf is that he should drop the gloves a few more times a season.  I'd like to see him challenge the other teams leaders/top players when they are down in order to give the team a kick. Sometimes this works to get a momentum change.  Iglina and Thornton have both done this successfully in the past.

2) The Signing Bust in David Clarkson.  I do think the Leafs grossly overpaid for him and the puck heads speculate that he is trying too hard to earn his pay cheque (aka Scott Gomez or Chris Drury disease.)  Missing the first 10 games from a suspension at the beginning of the season was stupid, but the teams need someone who will stand up for his teammates.  I think next season he will play a lot better with a proper start to the season and if he has Bolland or a decent center to develop some chemistry with.  He's making $1.25 too much for the next 6 seasons.  But, he's a proven effective grinder with New Jersey.  I think he will turn it around next season and the signing will look a lot better.

3) Get a True #1 Center.  Well all the pundits said that at the beginning of the season (including me) and looking at the pending UFA's for this summer and there is only one capable center available in Paul Stastny.  Well he is 28 and would likely want a 7 year deal for $7M a season.  That may be a good deal for 3 maybe 4 seasons, but Stastny is going to slow down.  Furthermore, he's a proven to be a second line center on Colorado of recent.  Matt Duchene has surpassed him for top line honours and Ryan O'Reilly is the better two way player.  The latter would dramatically help the Leafs as he's probably gets nominated for the Selke trophy and he does not take dumb penalties.

Other pending UFA centers include the following aging players David Legwand (33), Olli Jokinen (35), and the small Derek Roy (30).  Lastly, there is Mikhail Grabovski (30) who got his contract bought 2 days before his wedding by Nonis.  It would have been better to keep him than Bolland for this season.  I can't fault Nonis on this as who knew Bolland would miss 60 games.  A healthy Bolland is not the answer to their #1 center need though.

The only way the Leafs can get a top center in their prime is via trade or via the draft.  The latter would require tanking to get in the top 3 in draft or just luck to get a star player later in the draft.  I suggested yesterday they try to trade up for a higher draft pick from Edmonton, Calgary or the New York Islanders to get a top center or top defenceman.

4) Get a #1 Defenceman.  A top caliber defenceman is probably the hardest player to find and takes several years to develop.  Adding a Shea Webber, Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty or Ryan Suter to the Leafs would probably add dozen or more points to the Leafs standings and cut about 5 shots a night on net.  The Leafs years ago in the Beauchemin for Lupul trade got Jake Gardiner.  Gardiner now 23 has shown from time to time elite offensive skills and puck handling skills, he played extremely well in the Boston play-off series.  However, he is far from consistent, prone to errors, and defensively mediocre in his own end.  Gardiner now has 2 full seasons under his belt and he paid his dues in the AHL.  Maybe a change of coach or team could get more out of him, he's a 4th or 5th defenceman as of now and not the answer.

Morgan Rielly the fifth overall pick from 2012 might be the answer.  He has played very well in first season with the Leafs and continues to improve.  Give a few more seasons he could be the #1 defenceman or at least #2 or #3 defenceman.  The Leafs also have several prospects Matt Finn (2012 - 35th overall), Stuart Percy (2011- 25th Overall), Petter Granberg (2010 - 116th overall) and T.J. Brennan (2007 - 31st Overall).  The Marlies played a strong season and are 3rd overall in their conference and 5th overall in the league.  TJ Brennan leads the league with 22 goals and 63 points, Petter Granberg is +21, which is 10th overall in the league in his rookie AHL season, Stuart Percy has an admirable 22 points in his rookie season. Matt Finn is the #1 and leading scoring defenceman for the Guelph Storm with 61 points and +57 and 2nd highest scoring defenceman in the league.   Guelph Storm finished the OHL season first in the league and dominated the Plymouth Whalers in the first round of the play-offs.  So, odds after Rielly one of these players will become an effective NHL player.  

Could there be a stop gap on the Summer free agent market that would be an upgrade over the Leafs current defense.  There are several aging top pairing defencemen including Dan Boyle (37), Andrei Markov (35) and Kimmon Timmonen (39).  Timmonen is probably going to retire and Boyle likely resign with San Jose or retire.  Markov the youngest and the best player available when healthy will likely resign with Montreal, it was speculated that Markov wants 2 or 3 year deal worth $6M a season.  Probably too much for Leafs or most teams.

There are several depth defenceman available and you can see a list at Capgeek.com.  The best candidates include Kyle Quincey (28), Matt Niskanen (27), Andrew MacDonald (27), and Brooks Orpik (33).  An addition of one of these players would improve the Leafs back end, one of them would be a step up on Gardiner, Gleason or Ranger.  However, it would only make a marginal improvement in standings and shots against.

Stay Tuned:

Tomorrow I discuss the two major remaining points 'Fire the Coach' and 'Fire the General Manager.'

Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions?  How are you going spend your Spring when the Leafs are not on TV.

Toronto Maple Leafs - Who to Sell

Yesterday's blog I analyzed the Toronto Maple Leafs and explained why I think they should be sellers at the trade deadline.  Today, I tell you who they should sell and what I think they could get for them.

What the Leafs Could Do:

Unfortunately, the Leafs are right up against the cap and can not take on expiring/bad contracts like Burke did in the past along with acquiring decent prospects or picks.  I can see Brian Burke likely doing this with the Calgary Flames. So what options does Dave Nonis have? Well the following players do not have trade clauses and thus could potentially be easily moved.

1) Trade Nikolai Kulemin - He's the current longest serving Maple Leaf and he sitting third on either wing on the depth chart. He's proven capable two-way winger and can play second line minutes.  He's in the final year of $2.1M contract, thus has a reasonable cap hit for a contender.  The Leafs could likely get 2nd round pick or a decent prospect for him.  Kulemin is on the Russian Olympic Team and a strong play in these games could improve his value.  Previously Kulemin had success during the last NHL strike playing with  Evgeni Malkin for Mettalurg Magnitogrosk in the KHL.  He had 38 points (14/24) in 36 games.  He could be a good addition for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

2) Trade David Bolland - He's been injured for the majority of the season and has only played in 15 games. Bolland is a proven capable third line center, but his opportunity to be second line center was limited with the Leafs. At the beginning of the season he scored 10 points in 15 games, Leafs also won their first 10 of their 15 games with him in the line-up.  But, the Leafs most recent win streak coincided with Bozak's return to the line-up.  Bolland has proven to be solid in the play-offs with his 2 Stanley Cups with the Blackhawks, would they want him back?  Many teams in both conferences could use him as a depth at center.  The Leafs paid a 2nd round pick and 2 4th round picks to get him and likely as rental the Leafs could a 2nd round pick for him or a decent prospect.  He's a UFA at the end of the season and $3.375 cap hit.

3) Trade Cody Franson - He's an RFA at the end of the season and is earning $2M at the moment.  He's a capable offensive defenceman and has 4 rounds of play-off hockey experience, mostly with the Nashville Predators.  He's be good on the 2nd or 3rd pairing on a play-off team and leading the 2nd pair on the power play.  With Franson likely going to push for a new contract around $4.5M the Leafs are going to have to choose how much they want to spend on their defense. Also, with Gardiner and Rielly playing a similar game with more potential upside and Franson not using his 6ft5 frame aggressively I can see him elsewhere.  I think Franson would be worth a late round 1st pick or 2nd round pick and good prospect.  

  

4) Nazem Kadri - He's a young NHL player with a growing upside, but has not demonstrated that he's the answer to the elite center that Toronto needs to win.  He's also an RFA and signed for an affordable $2.9M for next season.  He would not be the answer for a play-off contending team unless they had an injury at wing, but he may desirable player to a team that wants to rebuild quicker (Calgary, Edmonton, NYI, etc.) and could garner the Leafs a high 1st round pick and a solid prospect.  A healthy Bolland plays more of a two-way game and is prone to less turnovers.  Kadri is also less needed at wing with Kessel, Van Riemsdyk, Lupul and Clarkson all signed long term.    

5) The Other UFAs - C Jay McClement and LW Mason Raymond are both on affordable contracts and are capable of playing third line minutes.  McClement is a penalty kill specialist and shot blocker,  he'd be solid depth on the 4th line of a play-off contender.  He may be able to fetch 4th round pick or long shot prospect.  Mason Raymond is smaller forward and speedster, he averages a point every second game and he'd be offensive depth on 3rd line.  Again, maybe you could get 4th round pick. 

The Old Fashion Hockey Trade:

Nowadays a fair number of players have 'modified no trade clauses' and for some you can only trade a player with his permission and other players are contractually required at the beginning of each season to provide a specified number of teams they are willing to be traded to.  With the latter I wonder how many players have Edmonton, Winnipeg or Nashville on that list.  But, saying that teams can greatly benefit if you can make a win-win trade.  As a hockey fan it would be wildly speculative of me suggesting trades and it would largely based on what 'puckheads' are saying to fill air time.  But, saying that I've suggested a few ideas for David Nonis.

1) Trading RW David Clarkson to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for 1st Round Pick and Solid Center or Defenceman Prospects.

This trade would make sense for both teams.  Clarkson has had a terrible season in Toronto and played very well for New Jersey Devils.  Clarkson wanted a pay day and that is why he left, and has a modified no trade clause.  This would give New Jersey second line winger and help the team remain competitive with a player who does not take the night off.  Also, he would be a good role model for New Jersey as they rebuild. Also, Jagr may choose to retire at season end and that would leave them a player short on the right side. For Toronto this would get other players in the system and potentially one of these could be the core player that will help the Leafs become a contender.

2) Trading D Cody Franson, F Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche for C Ryan O'Reilly and 3rd round pick or prospect.

Colorado has an abundance of centers with Matt Duchene, Nathan McKinnon and pending UFA Paul Stastny who they can resign.  Ryan O'Reilly has already previously signed an offer sheet with the Calgary Flames that they matched and will be likely be a contract fight again at the end of this season.  He's a two way center and is has 52% career face-off percentage.  Kadri is both signed for $2.9m for one more season and will provide equal offense as O'Reilly on the wing and Franson would improve their depth at defence and would be upgrade over Nick Holden or Nate Guenin on the second pairing. This would work for the Leafs as they would get a solid second line center in his prime that can win at face-offs. O'Reilly's defensive ability and his better than average ability in the face-off will cut down on shots against and improve the leafs puck possession.  This trade would also work under both teams cap situation. Lastly, O'Reilly is an Ontario boy, so he may want to play in his home province.  

3) Trading F Nazem Kadri and G James Reimer to the Florida Panthers for C Aleksander Barkov.  

Florida is in third last place and continues to rebuild and has several talented young players from years of high draft picks in the system.  Wouldn't it help to put people in the seats if you won a few more games and  your goalie was not an aging Tim Thomas?  Well Reimer has proven that he can steal games and say nothing to offend anyone.  Kadri has demonstrated that he is able to RW or C on the 2nd line in the NHL he continues to have upside, but he's not the #1 Center for the Leafs. Further he's farther along in his NHL development after playing 2 full seasons in the NHL and 2 seasons prior as a call up from the AHL. Barkov could be as he was 2nd overall 2013 pick, he's 6ft3 and 210 lbs, and lastly he's Finnish and probably be adept at ignoring the Toronto Media.  Toronto may have to further sweeten this deal by adding a conditional 1st round pick if Barkov meets certain targets in the next 2 seasons.

Conclusion:

If I was in GM David Nonis shoes I'd be actively listening for offers for my pending UFAs and trying to get first round picks or high potential  prospects.  Trading Kulemin would make the most sense where he is on the depth chart and trading Bolland if you don't think he wants to stay in the Blue and White. I'd be actively looking to resign McClement as when he's playing 10 minutes a night he is highly effective in the defensive zone and on the penalty kill.  Raymond I'd let his contract expire and let player on the Marlies compete for the opportunity next season. 

Also, looking at the pending 2014 free agents I think the Leafs should wait until summer and attempt to sign Matt Moulson who born in North York and is capable 30 goal scorer.  If that could be done I'd trade Kadri for first round pick and prospect.  Alternatively, if you were able to sign Moulson than you could Trade LW Joffrey Lupul who has reasonable contract for his level of play and he has to submit 14 teams at the beginning of the season he's willing to play for.  They are both 30 years of age, but Moulson is far less injury prone. You only need so many top 4 wingers and have so much cap space.

Other player I would have seriously scouted is C Paul Stastny of the Colorado Avalanche.  He's 28 and in his prime and capable of putting up 50 to 70 points a season.  He also has a career 52% save percentage and that is an improvement over Kadri and Bolland.  What the cons are is he's only 6ft tall, has 15 games of play-off experience, none of it in the last 5 seasons and his point totals have been on the decline since 2009-2010 peak of 20-59-79.  He'll also likely want a contract that is more then the $6.6M he's currently making and a long term deal.  However, I think the Colarado brain trust of  Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy will lock him up or let him go depending on how he plays in the play-offs.  If he doesn't perform that well, than why would the Leafs want him long term as well.  

For list of all pending UFA free agents see Capgeek.  Also, for a break-out of who the Leafs have signed and term see there page as well on Capgeek.

Your thoughts?  Any Trade Predictions?  Please add them below.

Did Brian Burke have success drafting players? More Toronto Maple Leaf Analysis

This is my third article in my continuing series of examining the Toronto Maple Leafs.  My previous article looked at how under Brian Burke and continuing with David Nonis the Leafs have almost entirely changed their roster.  This article looks at the draft success of the Toronto Maple leafs during his tenure.

Did Brian Burke have success drafting players?

I've heard 'puckheads' argue that it takes years to evaluate the quality of players drafted and that generally after 3 years you should be seeing players making the full time step up to the NHL.  So, I went back and just wanted to see the results from the 5 years Brian Burke was in town (2008 to 2012).  One can also say sometimes it is just blind luck when drafting players outside of the first 2 rounds.  But, the first two rounds your scouting team can consistently make a difference.

Nazem Kadri Drafted - 2009 7th Overall

The first pick Brian Burke (with David Nonis at his side) ever made for the Leafs organization was Nazem Kadri (2009 - 7th overall). Which has worked out well for the Maple Leafs and in hindsight no forwards drafted after him in the first round has had his success.  Only Ryan O'Reilly (33rd Overall) to date would arguably been a better forward pick subsequently in the draft. Plenty of defensemen went in the first round after Kadri including Jared Cowen, Ryan Ellis, Nick Leddy, and Dmitry Kulikov.  Not sure if any of these defensemen in hindsight would be an improvement on Franson or Gardiner the Leafs got via trade. 

       

The 2010 Draft the Leafs had no first pick as they traded it for Kessel.  The Leafs drafted 7 players through the 2nd to 7th round.  Not one of these players have yet to play in the NHL after 4 seasons. 3 of these 7 picks remain on the Toronto Marlies.  2011 the Leafs had two late first round picks of RW Tyler Biggs (22nd - overall) and D Stuart Percy (25th - overall), neither have yet to play in the NHL. Neither of these players are even lighting it up in the AHL.  They have combined played 19 games and have 3 points.  Two players have been calls up for the Leafs season are Joshua Leivo and David Broll from the middle rounds of the draft.  Per the 'puckheads' neither of these two players they expect to be more than bubble players.

Morgan Rielly Drafted - 2012 5th Overall

The 2012 draft is too soon to evaluate.  Morgan Rielly (5th - overall) looks like he can grow into a full time NHL regular defensemen.  The 5 remaining players drafted in round 2 to 7 are all still playing with their respective junior or college teams. The 2013 draft the Leafs had 5 picks, with the top being Frederik Gauthier (21st overall) a 6ft5 center. The Leafs could desperately use a big body center right now.  However Gauthier has to fill out as an adult and is still well away from being in the NHL.  Toronto had a similar 6ft5 center Joe Colborne (2008 - 16th overall pick) that the Leafs received in the trade for Kaberle in 2011 and he did not develop into a full-time NHLer.  He was traded to Calgary Flames at the beginning of the season as he was too far down the depth chart and demotion to the AHL he would have been likely lost on the waiver wire.    

So, was Brian Burke successful at drafting players?  Most General managers would say that they had a successful draft if 1 or 2 players eventually become a full time NHLers .  From 2009 to 2011 only Nazem Kadri has become a full-time NHLer, which is just 1 for the 23 picks the Leafs made.   No other player he drafted has yet to play more than 10 games as a call up.   It is too early to evaluate 2012 or 2013, but if you pick in the Top 10 you pretty much have a guaranteed NHL player.  Of course in Leafs Nation the last 25 years the General Manager has more than half time traded that pick away.  

Brian Burke the Anaheim Duck Years (2005 to 2008):

If you look at Brian Burke's drafting results from 2005 to 2008 (4 season) only 5 players are now full time NHLers, Bobby Ryan (2005 - 2nd overall) a star player, Matt Beleskey (2006 -112 overall) a 4th liner on the Ducks, Eric Tangradi (2007 - 42 overall) a 3rd liner on Winnipeg,  Jake Gardiner (2008 - 16th overall) 3rd pairing defensemen Toronto Maple Leafs, and Justin Schultz (43rd overall) a struggling defensemen. Given that there has been ample time for players to develop this result is not that impressive. 

Jake Gardiner Drafted - 2008 16th Overall

Final thoughts:

So, I think it is fair to say that Brian Burke and the management team he supervises is not that proficient at drafting.  He has not had great success in drafting during his tenures with both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks.  This is after 6 seasons of being the General Manager for the Vancouver Canucks (1998 to 2003).  So, he has no shortage in experience and ample time to learn on the job.   If you compare him to other GMs such as Ken Holland (Detroit Red Wings), David Poile (Nashville Predators), Peter Chiarelli (Boston Bruins), Dean Lombardi (Los Angeles Kings & San Jose Sharks), Ray Shero (Pittsburgh Penguins, and Bryan Murray (Anaheim Ducks and Ottawa Senators) who have had far more success in drafting players outside the top 10 picks and into the later rounds. You can see the success teams have had in drafting if you go to Hockey DB and see year over year draft results by team.

Who do you think is the best General Manager in the NHL?  Do you think Brian Burke did a good job?  Comments, thoughts, or suggestions, please share them below.   

Are there any Toronto Maple Leafs still around prior to Brian Burke?

This is my second article in what I think will be a 4 part series analyzing my favorite hockey team.  Please see my previous post on how the Leafs could use a player like Mats Sundin again.  My articles have largely been helped by the Hockey Database which has some neat features including seeing team draft histories with comparison to NHL games played and points.  For those looking for recipes I promise to continue adding them.  

Are there any Toronto Maple Leafs still around prior to Brian Burke?

Brian Burke was hired as the President and General Manager to the Toronto Maple Leafs replacing interim GM Cliff Fletcher on Nov 29, 2008.  Only a few days later he hired David Nonis on Dec 4, 2008. Working together they have combated the 'Blue and White' disease.  They chose to amputate and kept cutting.  The only NHL player that remains from prior the hiring of Brian Burke is Nikolai Kulemin, who was drafted in 2006 (44th overall) and made his NHL debut in the 2008-2009 season.  He's the Leafs current leader in games played at 354.  Two other players remain in the organization from prior to Brian Burke's arrival are Carl Gunnarsson (2007 - 194th overall) and James Reimer (2006 - Gretzky - 99th overall).

Nikolai Kulemin - Longest Current Leaf Player

A couple of other players preceded Brian Burke's arrival in the organization and they left last summer via trade or buy-out by David Nonis.  Mikhail Grabovski who arrived via trade made with Montreal by Interim General Cliff Fletcher was bought out the days before his wedding last summer. Leo Komarov a 2006 draft pick (180th overall) decided to go back to the Moscow Dynamo in the KHL.  It took him 6 seasons after drafting to come to North America and played one season and left.  Lastly, Matt Frattin a 2007 draft pick (another Gretzky - 99th overall) who played 81 games for the Leafs in recent seasons was trade to LA as part of the deal for the Leafs to get Jonathan Bernier. Frattin has played 14 games and has 4 points and is a team worst -6.  So far it looks like the Leafs have gotten the better end of the deal.  

Grabovski and Carlton the Bear

In conclusion under Brian Burke the 50 NHL player contracts the Leafs are allowed to hold annually has almost entirely revolved.  David Nonis became president this summer (who was already acting GM) has continued in this and only1 player and 2 draft picks (now NHLers) in the organization from 5 years ago.  So let us hope that none of these 3 players has the dormant 'Blue & White' disease in their bodies.   Or we'll have to call in yet another disease specialist...    

Marvel at the difference between these two rosters and how many of these players are no longer in the NHL.  

To see the Leafs 2007-2008 prior to Brian Burke - Click here.

To see the Leafs current 2013-2014 roster - Click Here. 

Are there any former Leafs you miss?  Are you the President of the Jiri Tlusty fan club?  Please add your comments below.