Shake It Up - Blue and White Style

Well it has been a few weeks since the draft, buy-out season and of course silly season.  The latter saw more than $600 million committed in guaranteed NHL contracts signed.  This is my first blog on the Leafs since they hired Brendan Shanahan as Leafs President on April 11, 2014 and the Leafs dreadful last few weeks of the season.

Hiring of a Stats Wonk! 

The Leafs have just hired a boy wonder named Kyle Dubas, who was the youngest General Manager in OHL history. He created a rag-tag team of volunteers to track advanced stats of the Sault-Ste-Marie Greyhounds and this resulted (working with Coach Sheldon Keefe) an improvement from 47% to 57% in puck possession.  The improvement has led to finishing atop of the West Conference in the OHL Standings during the last regular season. Although, they lost to the Erie Otters in 4 straight in the second round of the play-offs.

Brendan Shanahan and Kyle Dubas (Hiring Press Conference)

Some Quick Leafs Facts by the Numbers:

FYI - These stars are for free from NHL.com:

• 2014 Shots Allowed Against Goal 2,945 or (30th in the League)
• 2014 Shot on Opposing Team net 2,290 (25th in the League)
• 655 negative shot differential or the opposing team out shot the Leafs 7.98 shot a game. (30th in the League.)
• 2014 Penalty Kill 78.4% or (28th in the League)
• 2014 Short Handed Goals Against total 12th (29th in the League)
• 2014 Face-off percentage 48.3% or (24th in the League)

You don't need a PHD in statistics to realize that finishing in the bottom quartile of defensive stats in the league is going to result in a disappointing season.  So, what can do Dubas do?

Well he can probably challenge the coaching staff to better utilize players in varying situations at both the Marlies and Leafs level.  He also can probably identify which players are better with and without the puck,   But, is that the answer? NO.

You don't Need to be a Stats Genius!

Dubas might be able to make a small difference in the standings with the player personnel in the organization by identifying the better farm talent and giving the coaching staff better situational analysis.  It doesn't address the fundamental overall skills level in the Leafs organization.  The Leafs lack a #1 Center and a #1 or a second #2 defensemen.  True #1 defenseman are the rarest commodity and if you have two number #2's you are still better than the majority of teams.  

First lets address the #1 Center - the Leafs have not had a bonafide #1 since Mats Sundin's retirement 2007-08 season and then for majority of those seasons the Leafs did not have a genuine top winger.  Now, the Leafs have Phil Kessel a top 5 Right Winger without that true Center. In fact they may have two top 

wingers with James van Riemsdyk emergence last season as a 30 goal scorer.   At this time the Leafs do not have a center that is projected to be better than a third line center in their system.  Frederik Gauthier who the Leafs drafted #1 - 15th overall in 2013 has not shown a substantial improvement in his final season of Jr to warrant this or Peter Holland who they traded for with the Anaheim Ducks.  Nazem Kadri who was much higher draft pick (1st round - 9th overall 2009) -  has not shown the prowess at face-offs nor the ability to be defensively sound to be a #1 or #2 center.  He is probably best utilized as a second line Right Winger.

The answer here is either the Leafs hit a home-rum with highly skilled William Nylander (1st round -8th overall) or Brendan Shanahan works his charm and lures Steve Stamkos to Toronto in 2016 from his close friend Steve Yzerman.  Both are long-shots... Tampa will likely throw $10+ million a season at him and are the better team on paper right now.  Also, why would Stamkos want the pressure cooker of Toronto media for a team that is not close to Stanley Cup contention. If Shanahan can work his charm on the best unrestricted free agents that would be great.... but NHL teams have consistently signed their top players to long-term contracts the last few years.

Phaneuf is a talented player and is an NHL number #2 defencemen, but he is clearly better when not playing beyond 21 minutes a night and makes more mistakes.  You can not play at top form, play against the other team's top talent and not have a great defensive partner. Frankly, I was surprised when the Leafs traded Carl Gunnarsson for Roman Polak of the St. Louis Blues.  They got a right-handed shot which the Leafs only had in Franson.  Other than that it seems a wash in skill, as both had similar contract, are the same age and talent. There is a case for optimism here with the Leafs having Morgan Rielly who played well in his debut season for a defenesmen and who could be a legitimate #2 and play for Team Canada at the Olympics.  He's young and people outside of Leafs Nation think highly of him.  It is going to take him another few seasons to learn the game and push Phaneuf down the depth chart.

Also previously I had argued that the Leafs try to trade up and get Aaron Ekblad or #2 or #3 overall pick to get a Center.  Since none of the top picks moved, I can think that none of the GM's made a worthy offer. So, what can Dubas do?  You need elite talent to win.  

Well maybe he can remind Brendan Shanahan that the majority of Superstar and Star players are drafted in the first few picks of the annual draft.  Maybe, he can point out that you can find mediocre players for under $2 million rather than for $5 million.  Why spend to the Cap.... try some 'Moneypuck.'  Why not just tank the Leafs in 2014 for a shot at Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel who are both likely going to be NHL Superstars.  Baseball has wins above replacement, maybe the Leafs should have players better than pylons.

Final Thoughts:

The Leafs hiring a Stats Genius is not going to bring the Toronto Maple Leafs to the promise land of an NHL Stanley Cup.  You need to have the talent an as LA, Pittsburgh, Boston, Detroit and Chicago the last few season has proved it is a combination of drafting talent and developing them. It is a lot easier having a couple of top picks to get things moving towards success and then you get some players ready to re-sign for less or join your team at a discount.  Shanahan please use your past success and charm to placate the fools who expect you to turn it around in one season.  Bottom-out and let the kids from the farm have opportunities.  Try not to spend for a change and give the Leafs some room under the Cap by avoiding more Clarkson like commitments.  Then when the Leafs have enough young talent than try to lure in those complimentary players and then I can watch the Leafs without a paper bag over my head.

Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions?  I don't really watch the Leafs with a paper bag over my head.  I just only watch a dozen of 82 or so games. I'm not a masochist. How many do you watch?

One More Loss to Go

Once you are out of the playoffs their is no point winning anymore.  The higher you get in the draft, the greater chance of you selecting someone who is going to help you win in the playoffs a few years from now. With the last two losses the leafs sit in 22nd place or 9th from the bottom.  Previously I analyzed draft picks for teams that finished with the 8th or 9th draft pick in this recent blog.

Now hiring of Brendan Shanahan (3 Time Stanley Cup Champion, Hockey Hall of Famer, Regular Season totals of 656 Goals, 698 Assists, 1354 points, and Olympic Gold Medalist) and most recently VP of Player Safety is in my opinion silly as the President of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  He is certainly a winner on the ice, has life time of experience of playing in the NHL, and experience working/leading at NHL office.  He has no experience job shadowing a general manager or team president, like a lot of his contemporaries such as Cam Neely, Steve Yzerman, Joe Sakic, Joe Niewendyk, and Wayne Gretzkey.   So, if he now supercedes on the management chain current Leaf Senior VP and General Manager David Nonis is ludicrous.  Leafs also have Assistant General Managers/VPs Dave Poulin and Claude Loiselle. Dave Poulin has been the General Manager of the Toronto Marlies since 2009 and long history in hockey management.  Claude Loiselle was hired as the Assistant General Manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 1994 and was General Manager of their farm affiliate Norfolk Admirals for seven years.  In 2010, Brian Burke hired him as the Assistant General Manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  So, you have essentially 3 General Managers who all have more than a decade of experience to now be supervised by Brendan Shanahan.  It makes little sense to me and too many chefs spoil the broth. Shanahan does not have the experience running a business or a business degree or a law degree which is common in these positions.  Putting his smiling face in front of the camera is not going to make any less upset with the Leafs falling in the standings, nor the lack of Stanley Cup since 1967.

One more opinion is not going to make the Toronto Maple Leafs a winner.  It is talent in good combination with coaching.  So, if the Leafs lose their final game on Saturday to Ottawa and Winnipeg Jets win tonight against Calgary than the Leafs would draft most likely 8th.  That would make me happy.  It would make me even happier if they can combine their first pick and a secondary player for a top 3 pick.  Which I have talked about on an another recent blog.




DRAFT ORDER - Based on April 11TH NHL Standings

Rank	Team	% of Winning	Points	Games Remaining	Wins (incl. Overtime)
1	Buffalo Sabres	25.0	51	2	14
2	Edmonton Oilers	18.8	65	1	24
3	Florida Panthers	14.2	66	1	21
4	New York Islandersa	10.7	75	2	25
5	Calgary Flames	8.1	77	2	28
6	Carolina Hurricanes	6.2	79	2	33
7	Vancouver Canucks	4.7	81	2	30
8	Winnipeg Jets	3.6	82	1	28
9	Toronto Maple Leafs	2.7	84	1	29
10	Ottawa Senatorsb	2.1	84	2	29
11	Nashville Predators	1.5	84	2	34
12	Washington Capitals	0.8	87	2	27
13	Phoenix Coyotes	0.5	87	2	30
30	New Jersey Devilsc	1.1	85	2	34

% of Winning - Is the odds of a team winning the draft lottery. 

a - The New York Islanders must give either their 2014 or 2015 first round pick to the Buffalo Sabers as part of the Thomas Vanek trade.  

b - The Senators' first-round pick was traded to the Anaheim Ducks as part of the Bobby Ryan trade.a - The New York Islanders have the option to give either their 2014 or 2015 first-round draft pick to the Buffalo Sabres as part of the trade that sent Thomas Vanek to New York. The Islanders have to notify the Buffalo Sabers prior to the 2014 NHL Draft.

c- The New Jersey Devils regardless of standings will receive the 30th overall pick as cap circumvention penalty for signing Ilya Kovalchuk.