Did Brian Burke have success drafting players? More Toronto Maple Leaf Analysis

This is my third article in my continuing series of examining the Toronto Maple Leafs.  My previous article looked at how under Brian Burke and continuing with David Nonis the Leafs have almost entirely changed their roster.  This article looks at the draft success of the Toronto Maple leafs during his tenure.

Did Brian Burke have success drafting players?

I've heard 'puckheads' argue that it takes years to evaluate the quality of players drafted and that generally after 3 years you should be seeing players making the full time step up to the NHL.  So, I went back and just wanted to see the results from the 5 years Brian Burke was in town (2008 to 2012).  One can also say sometimes it is just blind luck when drafting players outside of the first 2 rounds.  But, the first two rounds your scouting team can consistently make a difference.

Nazem Kadri Drafted - 2009 7th Overall

The first pick Brian Burke (with David Nonis at his side) ever made for the Leafs organization was Nazem Kadri (2009 - 7th overall). Which has worked out well for the Maple Leafs and in hindsight no forwards drafted after him in the first round has had his success.  Only Ryan O'Reilly (33rd Overall) to date would arguably been a better forward pick subsequently in the draft. Plenty of defensemen went in the first round after Kadri including Jared Cowen, Ryan Ellis, Nick Leddy, and Dmitry Kulikov.  Not sure if any of these defensemen in hindsight would be an improvement on Franson or Gardiner the Leafs got via trade. 

       

The 2010 Draft the Leafs had no first pick as they traded it for Kessel.  The Leafs drafted 7 players through the 2nd to 7th round.  Not one of these players have yet to play in the NHL after 4 seasons. 3 of these 7 picks remain on the Toronto Marlies.  2011 the Leafs had two late first round picks of RW Tyler Biggs (22nd - overall) and D Stuart Percy (25th - overall), neither have yet to play in the NHL. Neither of these players are even lighting it up in the AHL.  They have combined played 19 games and have 3 points.  Two players have been calls up for the Leafs season are Joshua Leivo and David Broll from the middle rounds of the draft.  Per the 'puckheads' neither of these two players they expect to be more than bubble players.

Morgan Rielly Drafted - 2012 5th Overall

The 2012 draft is too soon to evaluate.  Morgan Rielly (5th - overall) looks like he can grow into a full time NHL regular defensemen.  The 5 remaining players drafted in round 2 to 7 are all still playing with their respective junior or college teams. The 2013 draft the Leafs had 5 picks, with the top being Frederik Gauthier (21st overall) a 6ft5 center. The Leafs could desperately use a big body center right now.  However Gauthier has to fill out as an adult and is still well away from being in the NHL.  Toronto had a similar 6ft5 center Joe Colborne (2008 - 16th overall pick) that the Leafs received in the trade for Kaberle in 2011 and he did not develop into a full-time NHLer.  He was traded to Calgary Flames at the beginning of the season as he was too far down the depth chart and demotion to the AHL he would have been likely lost on the waiver wire.    

So, was Brian Burke successful at drafting players?  Most General managers would say that they had a successful draft if 1 or 2 players eventually become a full time NHLers .  From 2009 to 2011 only Nazem Kadri has become a full-time NHLer, which is just 1 for the 23 picks the Leafs made.   No other player he drafted has yet to play more than 10 games as a call up.   It is too early to evaluate 2012 or 2013, but if you pick in the Top 10 you pretty much have a guaranteed NHL player.  Of course in Leafs Nation the last 25 years the General Manager has more than half time traded that pick away.  

Brian Burke the Anaheim Duck Years (2005 to 2008):

If you look at Brian Burke's drafting results from 2005 to 2008 (4 season) only 5 players are now full time NHLers, Bobby Ryan (2005 - 2nd overall) a star player, Matt Beleskey (2006 -112 overall) a 4th liner on the Ducks, Eric Tangradi (2007 - 42 overall) a 3rd liner on Winnipeg,  Jake Gardiner (2008 - 16th overall) 3rd pairing defensemen Toronto Maple Leafs, and Justin Schultz (43rd overall) a struggling defensemen. Given that there has been ample time for players to develop this result is not that impressive. 

Jake Gardiner Drafted - 2008 16th Overall

Final thoughts:

So, I think it is fair to say that Brian Burke and the management team he supervises is not that proficient at drafting.  He has not had great success in drafting during his tenures with both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks.  This is after 6 seasons of being the General Manager for the Vancouver Canucks (1998 to 2003).  So, he has no shortage in experience and ample time to learn on the job.   If you compare him to other GMs such as Ken Holland (Detroit Red Wings), David Poile (Nashville Predators), Peter Chiarelli (Boston Bruins), Dean Lombardi (Los Angeles Kings & San Jose Sharks), Ray Shero (Pittsburgh Penguins, and Bryan Murray (Anaheim Ducks and Ottawa Senators) who have had far more success in drafting players outside the top 10 picks and into the later rounds. You can see the success teams have had in drafting if you go to Hockey DB and see year over year draft results by team.

Who do you think is the best General Manager in the NHL?  Do you think Brian Burke did a good job?  Comments, thoughts, or suggestions, please share them below.