The Folly of Prediction - Making my own Noise Predicting the 2013-2014 NHL Standings and Stanley Cup Champion

In the summer I read 'The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail - but Some Don't' by Nate Silver.'  Nate Silver argues in the book that mathematical model building that is calibrated over time (adjusted for new data and results) is the best way to determine a future outcome.  Further, that this outcome is not absolute and one can break the probability into ranges (likeliness of outcomes.)  The author demonstrates his own successes with this approach based on his ability to predict recent US Federal elections.  Similarly, he discusses how climatologists/meteorologists continue to develop models for predicting weather and climate change.  The constant calibration as new meteorological data becomes available daily and the need for long term observable data.

The results of modeling (statistical analysis and determination of probability) he calls the signal.  The noise is simply all the talking heads (pundits) in the media making their own predictions based on their own intuitions.  They usually speak in a definitive tone and make predictions with absolute certainty.  The predictions are generally bold and there is little discussion of the likelihood of a result.  Each of these people produce some noise, throw a few of them on a panel show and it gets louder.  Change the channel and it is the same thing all over again.  So, the noise grows exponentially louder. This leads to the question how accurate is the noise? 

Freakonomics looks into this question with its free podcast called the "Folly of Prediction" which examines the accuracy of prediction makers.  They talk about studies that show the bolder the prediction the less accurate it is.  Experts are only marginally more accurate than casual observers predicting sports or election results. They conclude it is just human nature to try to predict the future and we are not that good at it.  This podcast is a little under an hour and a good listen.

In conclusion, I predict that listening to the aforementioned podcast and reading the Signal and the Noise you will find both informative and enjoyable. 

My Prediction of  2013-2014 Final NHL Standings and Stanley Cup Champion:

After saying all that above, I bothered to predict 2013 standings and Stanley Cup Champion when there is no reward for getting it right and no consequence for getting it wrong.  However, I sat there and thought about it multiple times a few weeks ago.  That human need to predict.  I even bothered to write it down on top of THN's own magazine prediction.  So let's see how I compare to the actual results and can I be more accurate than the professionals at The Hockey News.  My own noise in the sports prediction world and complete with bias in predicting my Maple Leafs to a 4th place conference finish.

Stanley Cup Champion:

My prediction:

Boston Bruins - (Runner-up St. Louis Blues)

THN's prediction:

St. Louis Blues - (Runner-up Pittsburgh)

Eastern Conference:
THN's Prediction:	My Prediction:
1) Pittsburgh Penguins 2) Boston Bruins 3) Ottawa Senators 4) Detroit Red Wings 5) New York Rangers 6) Toronto Maple Leafs 7) Montreal Canadians 8) Philadelphia Flyers 9) Washington Capitals 10) New York Islanders 11) Columbus Blue Jackets 12) Tampa Bay Lightning 13) Carolina Hurricanes 14) Buffalo Sabres 15) New Jersey Devils 16) Florida Panthers	1) Pittsburgh Penguins 2) Boston Bruins 3) Detroit Red Wings 4) Toronto Maples Leafs 5) Ottawa Senators 6) Montreal Canadians 7) Washington Capitals 8) New York Islanders 9) Columbus Blue Jackets 10) New York Rangers 11) Philadelphia Flyers 12) Tampa Bay Lightning 13) Carolina Hurricanes 14) New Jersey Devils 15) Florida Panthers 16) Buffalo Sabres

Western Conference:
THN's Prediction:	My Prediction:
1) Chicago Blackhawks 2) Los Angeles Kings 3) San Jose Sharks 4) St. Louis Blues 5) Minnesota Wild 6) Vancouver Canucks 7) Dallas Stars 8) Edmonton Oilers 9) Anaheim Ducks 10) Nashville Predators 11) Winnipeg Jets 12) Colorado Avalanche 13) Phoenix Coyotes 14) Calgary Flames	1) Chicago Blackhawks 2) San Jose Sharks 3) Los Angeles Kings 4) St. Louis Blues 5) Anaheim Ducks 6) Vancouver Canucks 7) Phoenix Coyotes 8) Minnesota Wild 9) Nashville Predators 10) Colorado Avalanche 11) Winnipeg Jets 12) Edmonton Oilers 13) Dallas Stars 14) Calgary Flames