The Final 2014 Men's Olympic Roster
(In brackets there age at the start of Olympic Tournament)
This is the position where Canada has the most depth and is hardest to differentiate the talent of players. Considering that St. Louis, Marleau, Kunitz will likely be retired and that both Sharp and Nash are in the declines of their career that there would be 5 spots open.
Brent Seabrook - A consensus pick to play in 2014 by the pundits and Duncan Keith's defensive partner in Chicago. He will be 32 in 2018 and likely still playing with Keith.
Kris Letang - One of the best offensive defenseman in the NHL when healthy, but the injury bug has been terrible the past two seasons. He would be 30 in 2018 and his ability to both score and setup a play from the point would merit him being part of the discussion.
Forwards:
|
Left Winger
|
Center
|
Right Winger
|
Line 1:
|
Chris Kunitz (34)
|
Sydney Crosby (26)
|
Patrice Bergeron (28)
|
Line 2:
|
Patrick Marleau (34)
|
Jonathan Toews (25)
|
Jeff Carter (29)
|
Line 3:
|
Jamie Benn (24)
|
Ryan Getzlaf (28)
|
Corey Perry (28)
|
Line 4:
|
Rick Nash (29)
|
John Tavares (23)
|
Matt Duchene (23)
|
Defensemen:
|
Left Side
|
Right Side
|
|
Pairing 1:
|
Shea Weber (28)
|
Duncan Keith (30)
|
|
Pairing 2:
|
Drew Doughty (24)
|
M.E. Vlasic (26)
|
|
Pairing 3:
|
Jay Bouwmeester (30)
|
Alex Pietranagelo (24)
|
|
Goaltenders:
|
Roberto Luongo (34)
|
||
Carey Price (26)
|
|||
Mike Smith (31)
|
Per the IIHF they are allowed to have a 25 man roster that
consists of 3 goalies and 14 forwards and 8 defensemen.(Note: During the 2010 Olympics rosters were 23 man in size, it was expanded to 25 for Sochi to allow emergency replacements to be easily available. Bench size consists of 21 players (2 goalies and 19 nineteen skaters.) There is 26 players above as Steven Stamkos broken leg did not heal in time and he was replaced by Martin St. Louis.
How Old Will These Players be in 2018
(Highlighted in yellow players over 34 Years Old)
Forwards:
|
Left Winger
|
Center
|
Right Winger
|
Line 1:
|
Chris Kunitz (38)
|
Sydney Crosby (30)
|
Patrice Bergeron (32)
|
Line 2:
|
Patrick Marleau (38)
|
Jonathan Toews (29)
|
Jeff Carter (33)
|
Line 3:
|
Jamie Benn (28)
|
Ryan Getzlaf (32)
|
Corey Perry (32)
|
Line 4:
|
Rick Nash (33)
|
John Tavares (27)
|
Matt Duchene (27)
|
Defensemen:
|
Left Side
|
Right Side
| |
Pairing 1:
|
Shea Weber (32)
|
Duncan Keith (34)
| |
Pairing 2:
|
Drew Doughty (28)
|
M.E. Vlasic (30)
| |
Spares:
| |||
Pairing 3:
|
Jay Bouwmeester (34)
|
Alex Pietranagelo (28)
|
Steven Stamkos (28)
|
Patrick Sharp (36)
| |||
Goaltenders:
|
Roberto Luongo (38)
|
Martin St. Louis (42)
| |
Carey Price (30)
|
Dan Hamhuis (35)
| ||
Mike Smith (35)
|
Based on the amount of elite players Canada has, the players ages and generally speaking players are in there prime from about 24 to 32 before they start a slow decline and injuries catch up. Further players past 35 that have played for Canada have been 1st Ballot Hall of Famers (ie Gretzky, Lemieux, Neidermayer, and Yzerman.) Based on that and there level of play I'm fairly certain that these players will not be Olympic Participants in 2018.
1) Martin St. Louis (42)
2) Chris Kunitz (38)
3) Patrick Marleau (38)
4) Roberto Luongo (38)
5) Patrick Sharp (36)
6) Dan Hamhuis (35)
7) Mike Smith (35)
Based on talent and play at the 2014 Olympics I doubt these players will be returning:
8) Jay Bouwmeester (34) - 3rd pairing Olympic defenseman who did not play key moments during the game.
9) Rick Nash (33) - Played 4th line minutes (8:32 minutes average per game) and was the third least used forward on the team. He also got only one assist as well and did not deliver as a goal scorer. Only Matt Duchene and Patrick Sharp played fewer minutes.
Predicting the 2018 Team:
It is fool's folly to try predict the 2018 team as so much can change by then. For example both Crosby and Bergeron based on their past concussion issues may be injured out of the game. Further everyday injuries and broken bones. Just recently Sweden had both their top two centers (Henrik Zetterberg and Henrik Sedin) unavailable because of injury. Players go through hot and cold cycles, such as Claude Giroux, who was playing terrible in the Fall and since Christmas he's been one of the best players. Above, I eliminated 9 players from returning to the 2014 team and here my suggested replacements.
Forwards:
This is the position where Canada has the most depth and is hardest to differentiate the talent of players. Considering that St. Louis, Marleau, Kunitz will likely be retired and that both Sharp and Nash are in the declines of their career that there would be 5 spots open.
1) Claude Giroux (C/RW) - He had terrible start at the beginning of the season, but has established himself as a top tier center and point per game player. At forward many of the talking 'puck heads' argued he should have been on the 2014 team and should have replaced Stamkos over St. Louis. He's also has proven in the past that he can play RW, thus has some versatility. He would be 30 and thus in his prime for 2018.
2) Taylor Hall (LW) - The 1st overall pick of 2010 would be 26 at the next Olympics. He has a knack for the net and has progressed into a point per game player. Yes, his defense could improve and it is baffling that Edmonton has yet to turn the corner with all their high draft picks, but I suspect soon the Oilers will be a contender and he'll be leading the charge. With some playoff experience he could develop that clutch experience team Canada needs and expects.
3) Tyler Seguin (C) - The 2nd overall pick after Taylor Hall and the player part of the trade for Phil Kessel is now in his 4th season in the NHL. He like Hall has developed in a points per game player and has demonstrated great chemistry with Jamie Benn who played on the 2014 team. Give him a few more seasons on a rebuilding Dallas Stars and he hopefully get the playoff experience to turn him into a clutch player.
4) Jordan Eberle or Jeff Skinner or Evander Kane- all first round picks and all have shown glimpses of capable goal scorers, will they all they turn the corner and become clutch players? Jeff Carter was able to score a hat trick and gave Canada many scoring chances. Will one of these players develop into a consistent goal scorer? They are all on teams that have done poorly for years (Edmonton, Carolina and Winnipeg), so one of these teams at least has to turn the corner and become a contender.
5) Nathan MacKinnon (1st overall - 2013 - Colorado) - He has 44 points in 58 games in his first season of the NHL and will likely win the Calder Trophy. With Patrick Roy coaching and Joe Sakic as the GM he has two winner to learn from and I suspect that Colorado will become an annual playoff contender with the depth of young talent they now possess. MacKinnon plays center and not wing, but with 4 years of more experience be able to challenge Crosby, Toews, Getzlaf and Tavares as a starting center?
Honourable Mentions:
Predicting out Goalie and defenseman is nearly impossible. Forwards often do show that talent far earlier and the next one is Connor McDavid (C). At the moment per 'puck heads' he's expected to be drafted first overall. That is two drafts from now, but in four years he would be in his second NHL season. He like Tavares was granted exceptional player status in the OHL and in his first Under 18 tournament led in scoring with 14 points in 7 games at the age of 16. Is he going to be the next superstar?
Defenseman:
With the age and strong play of Keith, Doughty, Weber, Vlasic and Pietrangelo that is 5 spots taken. PK Subban would likely be the 6th although he only played in 1 game and for 11 minutes in 2014 Olympics. Thus leaving two spots. I would imagine it would be two up and coming defensemen and it does take years to develop into a strong two-way player.
1) Erik Gudbranson (2010 - 3rd Overall - Florida) or Dougie Hamilton (2011 - 9th Overall - Boston) - Both of these defensemen are 6 ft 5 and have large reaches; they also have both established themselves as second pairing defensemen in terms of minutes. Neither have shown the offensive prowess of the next two players, but they are developing skills to shut down opposing forwards. Also, they are both starting to fill out to the size of their frames. Given 4 seasons they will be a lot harder to play against and one of them will be a top stud defenseman.
2) Morgan Rielly (2012 - 5th Overall - Toronto) or Ryan Murray (2012 - 2nd Overall) - Both of these players have had strong starts for rookie defenseman and have played 50+ games in their first seasons in the NHL. Given 4 years experience and that they both were exceptional players in the WHL one of them will likely be a top offensive defenseman.
Honourable Mentions:
Brent Seabrook - A consensus pick to play in 2014 by the pundits and Duncan Keith's defensive partner in Chicago. He will be 32 in 2018 and likely still playing with Keith.
Kris Letang - One of the best offensive defenseman in the NHL when healthy, but the injury bug has been terrible the past two seasons. He would be 30 in 2018 and his ability to both score and setup a play from the point would merit him being part of the discussion.
Goalies:
Carey Price is the likely starter or would be hard not to pick since he played so well in 2014. That leaves two up and coming goalies. At the moment only 25 of 60 NHL starters and back-ups are Canadian born per NHL.com. This is the position that Canada has the least depth on.
1) Jonathan Bernier - Great save percentage and skill level. Continuing to develop on the Leafs and would be 29 years old. Right in his prime for a goaltender.
2) Malcolm Subban - (2012 - #24 overall - Boston) or Martin Jones (Undrafted - LA Kings). Subban will be 25 and be coming into his own in the NHL. He'll likely start backing up Tuuka Rask on a defensive team and will have a chance to develop slowly. He would be 25 in 2018. Martin Jones was undrafted by the Los Angeles Kings and has steadily developed. He gave the Kings the confidence to trade Bernier and in his first NHL season as Quick's backup he has 8 and 4 record, with a .940% and 1.71 GAA.
Honourable Mentions:
Corey Crawford or Marc-Andre Fleury - Both goalies have won a Stanley Cup and have played in numerous play-off games. Crawford has a strong defense in front of him and is not known for stealing games yet, but rarely lets in bad goals. Fleury is consistent during the regular season and was instrumental a few years ago in the Penguins winning the Stanley cup. But the last few play-offs he was wildly inconsistent and the Penguins could not get past the first two rounds. Both goalies would be 33 in 2018 and one of them may be on top of their game.
Corey Crawford or Marc-Andre Fleury - Both goalies have won a Stanley Cup and have played in numerous play-off games. Crawford has a strong defense in front of him and is not known for stealing games yet, but rarely lets in bad goals. Fleury is consistent during the regular season and was instrumental a few years ago in the Penguins winning the Stanley cup. But the last few play-offs he was wildly inconsistent and the Penguins could not get past the first two rounds. Both goalies would be 33 in 2018 and one of them may be on top of their game.
